Bull Market Phases

March 01, 2024 • Reading Time:7 minutes

Sponsored by

Good Morning.

Today, in the Money Printer Go Brrr newsletter,

I aim to discuss the Are we in a Bull Market? and the Bitcoin Realized Capitalization onchain metric.

Are we in a Bull Market?

Bitcoin smashed 60,000 like it was nothing.

I think it's worth noting where we are, what the next step is, whether we're going to the moon or if we're going to crash...

We're talking sky-high highs and deep lows.

The bull market journey is an exhilarating ride through → 4 distinct stages.

Recognizing and adapting to each phase can enhance your decision-making, or…

if you’re just a spectator, just grab some popcorn.

It's a wild ride with four main stages, so strap in.

Stage 1: Rebirth — baby steps

  • aftermath of bear market: The market is recovering from its lows, but the mood is still cautious.

  • flickers of hope: Occasional positive signs appear but are often overshadowed by general skepticism.

💡 Prices begin to rise subtly, unnoticed by many who are still focused on past losses.

Stage 2: Excitement — things get spicy

  • end of bear market: A clear shift in momentum as the market moves away from its lowest points.

  • rising prices: Cryptocurrencies approach or exceed their previous highs, signaling a strong market.

💡 The community feels a mix of excitement and anxiety, with visible signs of prosperity.

Stage 3: Euphoria — you must buckle up

  • market peak: prices skyrocket, setting new records and creating a frenzy of activity and optimism.

  • mainstream attention: crypto gains widespread recognition, with significant investments and celebrity endorsements.

🐐 Everyone's a genius now, feeling a mix of "Heck yeah!" and "Wait, am I missing something?"

Stage 4: Disconnection — the party gets weird

  • irrational exuberance: the market disconnects from reality, with extreme examples of success and investment.

  • warning signs: despite the euphoria, there's a risk of significant downturns if caution is not exercised.

Everything is crazy here.

Your buddy, who still thinks Dogecoin is an actual dog breed, accidentally mints a token based on a typo. He wakes up a multimillionaire.

Guessed where we are right now? 
→ we are at stage 2. Two more to go...

💡 Tip: these stages can get messy, and sometimes they blur together. Pay attention to the overall mood and you'll do just fine.

Amidst the excitement, remember to keep a level head and enjoy the ride.

Are you ready to take your investing game to the next level?

We empower investors like you with a daily newsletter which includes the insights needed to stay informed and make profitable decisions in the stock market.

Join Millions Who Trust The Early Bird

  • Discover daily recommendations

  • Unlock hidden opportunities

  • Make informed investment decisions

By receiving our #1 stock tip delivered straight to your inbox every day at 6:59 am—completely FREE.

Seize the Opportunity:

Join the ranks of millions of investors who trust The Early Bird. Sign up now to receive today's #1 Trade of the Day and unlock a world of exclusive benefits.

Your success in the market is just one click away!

Bitcoin Realized Cap

You might have read the title and asked yourself: ‘the hell is that?’

Bitcoin Realized Cap is an on-chain metric that offers a deeper insight into the Bitcoin market than the standard market capitalization.

Bitcoin Realized Cap is a variation of market capitalization which values each coin based on the price when it was last moved on bitcoin blockchain.

Let’s break it down:

1. Understanding market capitalization

  • The market cap is calculated by multiplying the current market price of a single unit by the total number of units in circulation.

    Exemple: 60,000 (BTC Price x 20,000,000 (Total number of unit in circulation) = 1,2 Trilions

  • This metric snapshots the total market value at the current price BUT it doesn’t account for the price at which the unit was last transferred onchain.

2. Understanding Realized Capitalization

  • Instead of using the current market price for all units, it calculates the capitalization based on the prices at the time each unit last moved or was transferred on the blockchain.

Realized capitalization (realized cap) is a variation of market capitalization that values each COIN based on the price when it was last moved onchain, as opposed to its current value.

As such, it represents the realized value of all the coins in the network, as opposed to their market value.

😮‍💨 Sounds all interesting and that, but why does it matter?

When you compare the last traded price (market cap) with the recent price of onchain BTC moved (realized cap), you can identify bullish or bearish factors.

In 2021, the All-Time High (ATH) for Realized Capitalization was $468.4B.

At present, this situation situates our current value of Realized Cap just 0.22% below that ATH.

This is a bullish factor.

→ 99,78% value of onchain moved bitcoin are now on profit.

→ 99,78% value of onchain moved bitcoin don’t have incentivese to be sold.

→ There is no pressure on price

Also Realized Capitalization..

→ gives you a more granular insight, especially in terms of the actual capital invested in real on-chain Bitcoin.

→ acts as a better market sentiment indicator, as it reflects long-term investor confidence.

→ it highlights historical buying trends

And guess what? 

On average, Bitcoin holders have doubled their money, with 114% returns.

Not too shabby, huh?

If you want to read more about it you can head over to Glassnode’s website.

4 things you should know:

Meme Of the Day

Read a Bitcoin Book.

What'd you think of today's edition?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.